[Widget Codriver]

Let's see....

Midway through Ojibwe

Dave Higgins: 103 + 1 starting point + potentially 1 finishing point + potentially N results points = 104 + (0 worst case, 21 best case) = 104 to 125

Mark Lovell: 83 + 1 = 84

Mark Higgins: 66 + 1 + potentially 1 finishing point + potentially N results points = 67 + (0 worst case, 21 best case) = 67 to 88

Mark Nelson: 40 + 1 = 41 points
Rhys Millen: 40 + 1 = 41 points

Mark N and Rhys are now out of contention

Mark H wins, Dave H DNF's, yielding
Dave H: 104
Mark H: 88
Mark L: 84

As stands after Leg 1, with Mark H 1[sup]st[/sup] and Dave H 2[sup]nd[/sup]:
Dave H: 120
Mark H: 88
Mark L: 84

If top two swap:
Dave H: 125
Mark L: 84
Mark H: 83

One more slight change, if Dave H wins and Mark H finishes 3[sup]rd[/sup]:
Dave H: 125
Mark L: 84
Mark H: 80

After Ojibwe there are two Pro events left, offering a maximum of 44 points. If Dave H wins OFR, the delta needed to clinch is: 125 - 44 = 81, but Mark L has 84 and Mark H could have up to 88.

Therefore if Dave H wins, Lovell and Mark H have a slight chance at the title.

If Mark H finishes 3rd to brother Dave winning, he's out of the running.

It therefore appears that the AV team cannot clinch the title this weekend, but they certainly could have a powerful lead going into Wild West.

Realistically, it appears to me that Dave H needs to merely hold his position and drive to finish and he'll be in mighty powerful shape going out west.

Rally on!

----------------------
John Dillon       John @ WidgetRacing.com
            www.WidgetRacing.com

 

[RobBohn]

Ah - the mark of a true navigator; calculating the future! :7

Rob Bohn
(working instead of being at Ojibwe)

 

[Widget Codriver]

Clinching at Wild West?

One more calculation. If Dave H finishes 2[sup]nd[/sup] to Mark H at OFR, what'll he need to clinch at Wild West?

Dave H: 120
Mark H: 88
Mark L: 84

He needs a 22 point margin to clinch. (Ties are broken by most number of wins, right? -- don't have rule book in front of me.)

Best Mark H can hope for at WW is 88 + 22 = 110. Therefore Dave H needs 110 + 22 = 132 points after WW. 132 - 120 = 12 = 10 results points + 2 s/f points. To score 10 points you need to finish 4th or better.

If Mark H DNF's at OFR, then Dave has to outrun only 84 points.

If Dave H still finishes 2nd (unlikely--if Mark H is out he'd either win or DNF) he'd have to finish well enough to score 6 results points. Lets see, 20, 15, 12, 10, 8, 6, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1, 1.... If my memory is correct, he'd have to finish 6[sup]th[/sup] or better at WW.

Lastly if Dave H wins OFR and Mark H is 3rd or worse, then:

Dave H: 125
Mark L: 84

41 point delta

84 + 22 = 106

106 + 22 = 128

If Lovell won WW, Dave would need only 3 points at WW to clinch, basically anything in the top 10 would do it there.

They are clearly running from a position of strength, but I don't hear the opera lady singing yet.

What? Yes, I do have better things to do.... see ya!

 

[Pete Kuncis]

RE: Clinching at Wild West?

http://www.onalimbracing.com/stuff/explode.gif