[jeff burmeister]

So, what is really driving the age of cars in ProRally?

The Competition or the Rules?

Maine Forest Rally Entry list has an average age for the complete field at very young 1994.65


Positions 1 - 10
1999.9

position 11 - 20
1998.1

positin 21 - 30
1996.5

position 31 - 40
1998.4

Position 41 - 50
1995.3

Position 51 - 60
1993.3

Position 61- 70
1993.8

Position 71 - 80
1984.4 (*)

Position 81 - 90
1992.9

Position 90 - EoF
1993.8

(*) two historic cars are entered in this range.

 

[dch]

Get a job, Jeff!

-Doug

 

[jblewis]

Now Now Doug... Jeff has demonstrated that he hasn't been assigned enough homework until he proceeeds to do a similar analysis of this and last years' fields.

This coming from a guy did a three season analysis of solo entry distribution with goal of better distributing workers throughout the event.

Jeff, they didn't listen to my recommendations either!
JBLewis

 

[derek]

I did a bit more work to add more worthless infromation to the world. I worked out the Standerd Deviation from the average ie the range that most of the cars fall into is 1994 with a std_dev of about 7 years. This shows that there are a lot of new cars and a lot of old cars not too many cars in the middle or near the average.

Another intresting idea was to vet the field to see how may cars would be effected if in 2003 the rules changed to only let cars 10 years or newer compeat. This would excude 40 cars or near half the field. Thus I think it is an error to say the field is a young 1994, it is more accurate to say that about half the cars are new and half are old.

As I said more worthless info but fun to look at

DKB

 

[Adrian Wintle]

>So, what is really driving the age of cars in ProRally?

Nice analysis Jeff.

A point to note, though, is that part of this is due to the 'competetive car' syndrome. There are a lot of 2002 WRXs, since it is the new 'hot' car. There are also a lot of 1990-1994 TELs, since it was the last 'hot' car. Add in the collection of 1997-ish Evos and GpN Subarus (imported cars, mostly) and you have half of the field.

Unless another new 'hot' car comes along you will probably see the block of WRXs age as the TELs have, thus increasing the average age again.

Adrian

 

[daphne]

Excellent analysis. It shows that a straight average is not an effective tool for data analysis. Showing the distribution over the age range is a far more telling statistic.

Math is good.

 

[Don Kennedy]

Good point. For what it's worth, in 2000 there were 5 Subarus entered in STPR (I know because I was one of them). This year there were 27. I see Maine has 30 at this point!

 

[mgpsmith]

The two Historic Class car's ages are clearly outliers in this group; if you exclude the two 1968 cars, the average works out to something around 1996 (quickly looking it over...no, I didn't do the SD). And if one assumes the top half of the field represents the top half of the finishers (i.e. Seed 4 and up), it looks more and more like you need to be in a new car (i.e. 1998 and up).