Ten-day forecasts are not very useful. I don't know why they bother with them. Even 5 days out is quite iffy. Two days is about the most I'd rely on and with the time taken to trailer your car, your lead is gone. The jetstream can swing north or south in a couple of days and that makes the difference between whether we get Arctic air pulled down from the far north (-10C, snow/ice tires) or a warm Gulf stream from the south (10C, gravel tires).
Glad I already have my snow tires on in preparation for working the Pines next week. Drive in to work today (Waterloo, Ontario) was a real mess and I had nearly bald summer performance tires on before.
Even if it is warm and sunny during the day, there are parts of the roads that get little to no sun. Those roads can keep snow and ice on them for days. If there is 25% or better snow cover on the Egan Creek roads gravel tires will not work as well as snows - we proved that last year . It only takes a dusting of snow - just enough to cover the gravel.
Environment Canada (where I used to work at both AESHQ and PWC) for Friday the 21st: -2 high, -4 low, sunny
All temps in degrees celcius of course.
They couldn't be much more different and it is just 4 days away. The two models diverge completely on Thursday.
BTW, competed in (Not) The President's Prize Road Rally Saturday night in Peterborough (hour south of Bancroft). Snow and ice on the roads but lots of gravel still visible. That will likely be gone with the predicted rain (both forecast models) tomorrow and Wednesday but could freeze into icy patches by the weekend if you believe Environment Canada or could become muck if you believe The Weather Network.
If it doesn't snow and the roads are wicked fast as they were in 2001, imagine how fast we can go with stagenotes. Maybe the turbo restrictors will slow us some compared to years gone by, but....
I would say they will be at least as fast considering in 2001 there were more MNR roads and less township roads. This year there is more township roads which would be quicker I would think because they are so smooth.